Using the Features of the Presidential Election Cycle to Identify the Dominant Trend in Global Stock Markets

Title
Using the Features of the Presidential Election Cycle to Identify the Dominant Trend in Global Stock Markets

Author
Tetiana Pelina
Student, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University, Dnipro, Ukraine
Email: pelina.tetiana@gmail.com

Author
Oleksii Dzhusov
Doctor of Economics, Professor of International Management Department, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University, Dnipro, Ukraine
Email: ukrcredit@yahoo.com

Review Status
DOUBLE-BLIND PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLE
This article has been evaluated and accepted through a formal double-blind peer-review process.

Journal / Publisher Details
Journal: International Journal of Psychology and Strategic Communication
Volume: 02, Issue 01 (2026)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.61030/AXJA6245

Abstract
The article is devoted to the study of the socio-political cyclical pattern “Presidential Election Cycle” in economics and its practical application for forecasting the dynamics of stock markets. The methodology is based on a statistical analysis of the US stock market, which is a key component of the global financial market. The study used statistical data on the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1897 to 2025. Characteristic patterns that determine the behavior of the stock market in different phases of the “Presidential Election Cycle” in modern economic conditions were identified. It was found that within this cycle, only the pre-election year is of practical interest, in which the average increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 2–4 times higher than the increase in other years of the cycle. It was established that the thesis about the higher dynamics of the stock market during the rule of the Democratic Party is confirmed in modern conditions.

Keywords
Presidential election cycle, stock market, prevailing trend, Dow Jones Industrial Average, forecasting.

How to Cite This Article
Pelina, T., & Dzhusov, O. (2026). Using the Features of the Presidential Election Cycle to Identify the Dominant Trend in Global Stock Markets. International Journal of Psychology and Strategic Communication, 2(1).
https://doi.org/10.61030/AXJA6245

Full Article (PDF)
https://ijpsc.org/journal/v02_i01/AXJA6245.pdf

Metadata and Info

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.61030/AXJA6245
• Publication Year: 2026
• License: CC BY 4.0 (if applicable) – https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Published by: International Journal of Psychology and Strategic Communication

@article{TetianaPelina2026AXJA6245,
  title = {Using the Features of the Presidential Election Cycle to Identify the Dominant Trend in Global Stock Markets},
  author = {Tetiana Pelina},
  journal = {International Journal of Psychology and Strategic Communication},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {2},
  number = {1},
  doi = {10.61030/AXJA6245},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.61030/AXJA6245},
  issn = {2941-5691}
}

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